GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its projection for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent, marking a significant upward adjustment from the 1.9 percent forecast issued in March. The WTO explained that this revision was supported by robust trade activity in the first half of the year, along with supply chain reforms and increased investments in artificial intelligence. Despite considerable disruptions in energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5 percent during the first six months of 2026. The organization now anticipates merchandise trade to grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence played a prominent role in merchandise trade growth during the initial half of the year. AI-related products such as semiconductors and servers contributed to 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth, with trade in these goods soaring 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also indicated that global expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to increase by at least 30 percent in 2026. The rising demand for computing hardware bolstered trade performance, even as other sectors faced setbacks due to conflicts and transport constraints.
Adjustments in global supply chains were evident as major commodity and shipping markets experienced pressure. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined by approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026, while liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell by 47 percent over the same period. Nevertheless, increased shipments from alternative suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil to about 6 percent, and LNG exports worldwide fell by just 1 percent. Additionally, container throughput across the globe grew by 3.9 percent through July, reflecting trade rerouting through alternative ports and corridors.
AI-enabled goods bolster global merchandise trade
The optimistic outlook for goods contrasts sharply with weaker forecasts for international services trade. The WTO reduced its 2026 growth projection for services trade volume from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East led to increased pressure on transport and international travel, with international tourist arrivals declining by 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Overall, arrivals in the first half of 2026 increased by only 0.4 percent. Growth in travel-related spending also slowed markedly from the first to the second quarter.
Despite these challenges, other service sectors experienced stronger performances. Exports of computer services grew by 18 percent in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, with an estimated second-quarter growth of 12 percent. Exports of financial services increased by 14 percent year-on-year during the second quarter. The WTO projects that commercial services trade will grow by 6.4 percent in 2027, while global GDP is expected to expand by 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Trade growth varies significantly across regions
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade reveal notable disparities. Asia is expected to lead with a 9.9 percent increase in exports in 2026. North America’s exports are forecast to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa is projected at 5.6 percent. South America is anticipated to see a 3.4 percent rise. Conversely, Europe is expected to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the largest contraction, with merchandise exports forecast to decrease by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also shows wide regional variations. Asia is expected to see a 9.5 percent increase in merchandise imports, with Africa following at 8.9 percent. North American imports are projected to grow by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. The Middle East is forecasted to have merchandise imports fall by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the latest figures highlight trade resilience while also exposing the uneven impact of economic and geopolitical disruptions across regions.