BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – Transport costs within the European Union are expected to rise by an estimated €53 billion in 2026 due to higher road fuel prices. On September 23, Transport & Environment released this projection after analyzing data from the 28 weeks ending on September 6. The Brussels-based organization compared fuel expenditure during this period with the same timeframe a year earlier, adjusting for inflation. Diesel contributed approximately €40 billion to this additional expense. The estimate encompasses spending on diesel and petrol associated with road transport.
According to T&E, increased fuel prices added an average of €270 million daily to EU road transport costs. Diesel was responsible for roughly €203 million of that daily increase, while petrol contributed about €67 million. The group attributes the rise to tighter refined-fuel supplies amid the Middle East conflict and outages at Russian refineries, which widened the gap between crude oil prices and refined products, especially diesel. These pressures are also linked to the fact that diesel and gasoil make up about 43% of petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
The European Commission has separately reported considerable volatility in crude oil and refined-product markets, notably for diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group stated on September 8 that the EU does not currently face an immediate oil supply shortage. Increased refinery production in the EU and alternative global sources are sufficient to meet current demand, and commercial as well as emergency oil stocks remain adequate. Nonetheless, geopolitical uncertainties continue to cause significant price fluctuations across global oil and petroleum markets.
Rising diesel prices impact drivers and freight companies
For individual drivers, T&E estimates that the average EU diesel car driver spent about €142 more during the study period. As of September 14, the organization calculated that filling a 50-litre diesel tank incurred a €30 premium compared to pre-conflict prices. Long-haul trucks in Germany faced an average weekly additional fuel cost of approximately €236. The analysis states that Europe hosts around 6.2 million trucks on its roads. The increase in diesel prices has also affected freight operators and other commercial fuel consumers.
Diesel remains the dominant fuel for road transport and freight activities within the EU. T&E reported that in 2024, 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil consumption was attributed to road transport. Eurostat data shows that gas and diesel oil supplied 63.2% of the energy used for road transport that year, with motor gasoline accounting for 26.9%. Renewables and biofuels contributed 6.2%, and electricity made up 0.7%. Overall, diesel and gasoline alone provided 90.1% of the energy used for road transport in 2024.
EU fuel prices remain under close observation with new data
The European Commission updated its Weekly Oil Bulletin on September 24 with recent consumer petroleum prices from EU countries. This publication tracks weekly price trends, including figures with and without taxes, and maintains a historical record dating back to 2005. The update followed the end of the T&E study period on September 6. The Commission gathers national price data and publishes comparisons across member states regularly. Its September 8 supply assessment identified diesel and jet fuel as products experiencing notable price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E remains an estimate produced by the environmental organization rather than an official EU calculation. This figure calculates the additional expenditure on road fuel over the 28-week period in 2026. The report also examines the impact on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, highlighting diesel as the primary contributor to the projected increase. T&E advocates for measures to reduce diesel demand and promote vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU statistics continue to monitor fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum consumption across the bloc.