MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has set a goal of producing 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050 as part of a newly approved industry development strategy. This target is incorporated into the revised coal expansion plan, which includes various growth scenarios. In 2024, coal output was approximately 443 million tonnes. The Russian government ratified the plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, establishing long-term benchmarks for production, exports, and industry growth.
Four different pathways for the coal industry’s progression until 2050 are detailed within the plan. The primary scenario envisions production reaching 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and climbing further to 595.2 million tonnes by 2036. Ultimately, it projects an increase to 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios predict lower levels, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes under the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production goals, Russia also established export targets. In the main scenario, coal exports are expected to hit 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, increase to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, and reach 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan addresses both domestic consumption and international sales of coal.
Production and Export Objectives
The government’s strategy emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while expanding coal resource development. It also promotes a greater role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together accounted for 48.3% of national production in 2024. The plan aims to raise this share to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports having explored coal reserves exceeding 273 billion tonnes.
Specific targets for coal processing and mining techniques are included as well. The proportion of processed coal, excluding lignite, was 58.9% in 2024. The plan projects this figure increasing to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of total coal production in 2024, with a goal to raise its share to between 82% and 85%. The document also emphasizes improvements in productivity, technological advancement, safety, and environmental standards.
Long-Term Coal Strategy Extends to 2050
Russia intends to implement the program through three distinct phases. The initial phase, ending in 2030, focuses on expanding production and supporting the industry. The second phase, spanning 2031 to 2036, will concentrate on coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final phase, from 2037 to 2050, will cover ongoing development and modernization efforts. The Energy Ministry will oversee progress, coordinating with federal and regional authorities and participating organizations, and will provide annual reports to the Economic Development Ministry per government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced this revised program during a government session on September 21. It replaces the earlier coal industry plan that was approved through 2035 in 2020. Novak noted that the new strategy forecasts a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with a total multiplier impact approaching 10 trillion roubles. The target of 662 million tonnes remains a scenario outlined in the plan, not a fixed prediction, emphasizing its conditional nature.